Category: public opinion

På baggrund af en ny meningsmåling foretaget for INVI (der på en eller anden måde er en forkortelse af Institut for vilde problemer) af Epinion, konkluderer førstnævnte: “Folkestyret er dårligt til at løse de problemer, der optager befolkningen.” Mere konkret konkluderes det i analysen på baggrund af meningsmålingen, at demokratiets evne til at løse de […]

The conclusion in the wake of the Brexit referendum was that the referendum was a failure for the opinion polls. In other words, the polls got it all wrong. Here is one representative example from The Guardian on the media coverage following the referendum: “It wasn’t just a bad night for Europhiles and David Cameron, […]

There is not a single reason that – on its own – can explain why opinion polls differ from election results. Here is an overview of ten reasons opinion polls (sometimes) differ from election results: Margin of error. When we talk about the margin of error in an opinion poll, we accept that even state-of-the-art […]

The more likely it is that a weighted average of opinion polls is wrong, the more we need it. If several opinion polls show the exact same numbers, a weighted average will – all else equal – be more correct than if the opinion polls differ a lot, but such an average is not really […]

Skal meningsmålinger fra alle analyseinstitutter inkluderes i et kvalitetsvægtet gennemsnit? I mit forrige indlæg om FiveThirtyEights nye vægtede gennemsnit pointerede jeg, at G. Elliott Morris, der nu står bag det vægtede snit, ikke delte samme tilgang til vægtede snit som Nate Silver, der i mange år har været synonym med FiveThirtyEight. Et af de konkrete […]