Month: April 2021

I am tired of reading and reviewing academic studies using mediation analysis, especially when researchers are relying on cross-sectional, observational data. None mentioned, none forgotten. In the best possible world, people would read more Pearl and understand the challenges of demonstrating empirical evidence in line with causal pathways (and maybe reconsider whether they want to […]

We cannot understand modern politics without studying social media. Politicians as well as ordinary citizens rely on social media to discuss and consume political content. One of the data sources researchers rely on to study behaviour on social media is survey data. However, there can be specific challenges with studying social media. Here, I will […]

I 1963 publicerede psykologen Stanley Milgram artiklen Behavioral Study of Obedience, hvor det blev undersøgt, i hvilket omfang mennesker følger autoriteter (Milgram 1963). Forsøgspersonerne i eksperimentet bliver informeret om, at de i et læringseksperiment skulle give en anden person stød, hvis vedkommende huskede forkert. Den afhængige variabel i studiet er angiveligt graden af stød forsøgspersonen […]

Der er sket meget i meningsmålingerne i løbet af de seneste par måneder. I januar viste min prognose, at Venstre stod til at få omkring 17 procent af stemmerne. Siden da har partiet mistet endnu flere vælgere i meningsmålingerne. I min seneste prognose står partiet til at få omkring 10 procent af stemmerne. Til sammenligning […]

In 2016, opinion polls – and in particular poll-based prediction models – suffered a major hit with the inability to predict the election of Donald J. Trump as the president of the United States. If you want a quick reminder, take a look at this forecast from the 2016 Presidential Election: The 2020 Presidential Election […]