En ny meningsmåling foretaget af Langer Research Associates for ABC News/Washington Post, viser, at Donald Trump fører over Joe Biden med omkring 10 procentpoint, når det kommer til spørgsmålet om, hvem vælgerne vil stemme på ved næste amerikanske præsidentvalg i november 2024. Meningsmålingen har fået en masse kritik med på vejen, selv i danske medier […]
Category: public opinion
Vilde problemer i meningsmålinger
På baggrund af en ny meningsmåling foretaget for INVI (der på en eller anden måde er en forkortelse af Institut for vilde problemer) af Epinion, konkluderer førstnævnte: “Folkestyret er dårligt til at løse de problemer, der optager befolkningen.” Mere konkret konkluderes det i analysen på baggrund af meningsmålingen, at demokratiets evne til at løse de […]
Brexit was not a polling failure
The conclusion in the wake of the Brexit referendum was that the referendum was a failure for the opinion polls. In other words, the polls got it all wrong. Here is one representative example from The Guardian on the media coverage following the referendum: “It wasn’t just a bad night for Europhiles and David Cameron, […]
Why polls sometimes differ from election results
There is not a single reason that – on its own – can explain why opinion polls differ from election results. Here is an overview of ten reasons opinion polls (sometimes) differ from election results: Margin of error. When we talk about the margin of error in an opinion poll, we accept that even state-of-the-art […]
Ergodicity and weighted averages of opinion polls
The more likely it is that a weighted average of opinion polls is wrong, the more we need it. If several opinion polls show the exact same numbers, a weighted average will – all else equal – be more correct than if the opinion polls differ a lot, but such an average is not really […]