FiveThirtyEight har netop introduceret deres nye kvalitetsvægtede gennemsnit af meningsmålinger i USA. Introduktionen til deres nye gennemsnit kan findes her og du kan læse mere om metoden bag her. Baggrunden er, at Nate Silver ikke længere er ansat hos FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver havde alle rettigheder til de modeller, der blev anvendt (jvf. et indlæg på […]
Category: blog
Most people support tax on inheritance
A new study by Demos shows that most people in the UK support tax on inheritance. You can read more about the study here. Full disclosure: I helped out with parts of the statistical analysis for this study.
National narcissism and proportion estimation in surveys
In a study titled ‘We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History’, the authors conclude that most people overestimate the contribution of the country they are currently living in to world history. This is, according to the authors, evidence of national narcissism. The authors asked students in 35 countries […]
Correlations as effect sizes in data visualisations
Anscombe’s quartet highlights the importance of data visualisation when interpreting the relationship between two variables. That is, a simple correlation coefficient is not sufficient to understand the relationship between two variables. We want to see the data. For a great example on the many different data patterns that can lie behind a correlation coefficient, check […]
Honesty may still pay off in politics #2
In 2020, I wrote a post on a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showing that politicians who are averse to lying have lower reelection rates. In other words, politicians who are less honest are more likely to do well in politics. In brief, I found that the results in […]