The world is full of noise. This is not a novel insight. Luckily, the power of statistical models to predict human behaviour is limited, and if a model is able to predict all relevant variation in an outcome of interest, we should be concerned about overfitting and other potential problems. There are good reasons why […]
Month: June 2021
Which party do you think is most likely to agree?
In a new poll, JL Partners surveyed more than 2,000 respondents to understand how the public perceives the Labour Party and the Conservative Party on a series of different “woke” topics. The Daily Mail uses the poll to conclude that “Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is out of touch with public opinion”. Is that what […]
New article in Electoral Studies: Populist parties in European Parliament elections
In the June issue of Electoral Studies, you will find an article I’ve written together with Mattia Zulianello. In the article, we introduce a comparative dataset on left, right and valence populist parties in European Parliament elections from 1979 to 2019. Here is the abstract: Despite the increasing interest in populism, there is a lack […]