Erik Gahner Larsen

Potpourri: Statistics #44

New article in European Sociological Review: Welfare Retrenchments and Government Support

My article, ‘Welfare Retrenchments and Government Support: Evidence from a Natural Experiment’, is now published in the European Sociological Review (vol. 34, no. 1). The abstract sums up the content of the article:

A large body of literature has provided mixed results on the impact of welfare retrenchments on government support. This article examines whether the impact of welfare retrenchments can be explained by proximity, i.e. whether or not the retrenched policy is related to people’s everyday lives. To overcome limitations in previous studies, the empirical approach utilizes a natural experiment with data from the European Social Survey collected concurrently with a salient retrenchment reform of the education grant system in Denmark. The results confirm that people proximate to a welfare policy react substantially stronger to retrenchment reforms than the general public. Robustness and placebo tests further show that the results are not caused by non-personal proximities or satisfaction levels not related to the reform and the government. In sum, the findings speak to a growing body of literature interested in the impact of government policies on mass public.

The article is available as open access here. The replication material can be found at the Harvard Dataverse and at GitHub.

Skal dronningen abdicere?

En af de seneste nyheder i det forgangne år var, at et klart flertal af danskerne ønskede at dronningen skulle abdicere. Baggrunden for dette var en meningsmåling foretaget af analysebureauet Wilke for Avisen.dk, der blev samlet op af diverse andre nyhedsmedier.

Der er flere gode grunde til at være kritisk i forhold til den pågældende meningsmåling, hvorfor jeg også glædeligt har kommenteret på meningsmålingen for TjekDet.

Hvad jeg ikke vidste da jeg kommenterede meningsmålingen var, at 21 procent af de adspurgte i meningsmålingen svarede ‘ved ikke’, som er blevet frasorteret i meningsmålingen. Dette gør blot kritikpunkterne endnu mere relevante. Ligeledes er det sjovt at se, hvordan man kan forsvare en misvisende overskrift med, at man “laver journalistik”.