Potpourri: Statistics #63 (COVID-19)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”
Top 15 R resources on Novel COVID-19 Coronavirus
Collection of analyses, packages, visualisations of COVID19 data in R
Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States
How to Flatten the Curve, a Social Distancing Simulation and Tutorial
Forecasting COVID-19
Flatten the COVID-19 curve
Tidying the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 data
Our World in Data: Coronavirus Source Data
A COVID Small Multiple
– Some R-scripts available on GitHub: andrewheiss/flatten_the_curve.R acoppock/covid, troelst/covid.Rmd

New resource: awesome-ggplot2

I use ggplot2 every day. It is a great R package and the best tool available to make beautiful data visualisations. The logic of grammar of graphics makes it easy to learn as well as making it possible for you to gradually improve your plots.

Luckily, there are a lot of resources available for the package. I have created a repository with a list of packages, tutorials and other useful resources.

It is available here. It was also featured in R Weekly.

Hvordan klarer Alternativet sig i meningsmålingerne? #2

For fem år siden blev Alternativet opstillingsberettiget. I den forbindelse begyndte diverse analyseinstitutter også at give bud på, hvor mange vælgere, der ville stemme på partiet. Partiet blev annonceret allerede i 2013, men det var først i 2015, da partiet blev opstillingsberettiget, at meningsmålingerne begyndte at inkludere dem.

Som jeg viste da de første meningsmålinger havde set dagens lys, lå partiet omkring spærregrænsen. Mange meningsmålinger viste således, at partiet lå til at få omkring 2% af stemmerne, når man tog den statistiske usikkerhed i betragtning. Der var dog også meningsmålinger, der viste, at de lå under spærregrænsen.

Ganske overraskende blev partiet en succes. Ved valget i 2015 fik partiet 4,8% af stemmerne og i løbet af den pågældende valgperiode kom partiet op på omkring 7,5% af stemmerne. Det var med andre ord et af de største partier blandt nichepartierne.

Siden da er det dog gået én vej. Faktisk er historien om Alternativet i meningsmålingerne siden 2015 en historie om nedgang. Ovenstående figur viser samtlige meningsmålinger med Alternativet, hvor dets storhed og fald let kan ses. Partiet er således så småt tilbage til udgangspunktet, hvor de ligger omkring spærregrænsen.

Opgaven for Alternativet nu bliver at vende denne tendens. Det er let at se på partiets nye problemer – både som organisation og som politisk projekt – men sandheden er, at partiet har haft svært ved at holde opbakningen ved lige i meningsmålingerne i løbet af de seneste år.

25 interesting facts #2

26. Countries with more political imagery on their money tend to have less political freedom and less gender equality (Lawson 2019)

27. Parents have lower academic expectations for girls with a younger brother (Cools and Patacchini 2019)

28. “Ban the Box” policies, i.e. policies restricting employers from asking about applicants’ criminal histories on job applications, encourage racial discrimination (Agan and Starr 2018, Doleac and Hansen 2020)

29. Night flights are worse for the climate than daytime flights (Reed 2006)

30. Politicians appear more competent when using numerical rhetoric (Pedersen 2017)

31. Disaster relief decisions are driven by news coverage of disasters (Eisensee and Strömberg 2007)

32. The rate of learning is maximized when the difficulty of training is adjusted to keep the training accuracy at around 85% (Wilson et al. 2019)

33. Middle name initials enhance evaluations of intellectual performance (Tilburg and Igou 2014)

34. In Bangladesh, because gender norms prohibit women from leaving their homes without a male relative, women are far more likely to suffer flood-related deaths (Juran and Trivedi 2015)

35. Caffeine ingestion improves muscular endurance (Warren et al. 2010)

36. Meta-analytic effect sizes are, on average, larger than replication effect sizes (Kvarven et al. 2019)

37. Climate change is now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale (Sippel et al. 2020)

38. Extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements (Feinberg et al. 2020)

39. U.S. air strikes employed during the Vietnam War worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government (Dell and Querubin 2018)

40. Politicians winning a close election live longer than candidates who lose (Barfort et al. 2020, Borgschulte and Vogler 2019)

41. Marathon runners are more likely to complete a marathon just below 4 hours (than just above 4 hours) because round numbers serve as reference points (Allen et al. 2017)

42. LEGO blocks provide better thermal isolation than well-known bulk insulator materials (Chawner et al. 2019)

43. Content disputes in Wikipedia correlate with geopolitical instability (Apic et al. 2011)

44. In London, passengers often trust the Tube map more than their own travel experience when deciding the best travel path (Guo 2011)

45. Rapid implementation of multiple public health interventions can significantly reduce influenza transmission (Hatchett et al. 2007)

46. Fully supported hypotheses in PhD theses are more likely to be published (Cairo et al. 2020)

47. Liberals and conservatives show similar levels of bias (Ditto et al. 2019)

48. Adoption of the fist bump as a greeting could substantially reduce the transmission of infectious disease (Mela and Whitworth 2014)

49. Atheists and agnostics are “prayer averse”, i.e. willing to pay to avoid receiving prayers (Thunström and Noy 2019)

50. There is a positive correlation between the number of characters in an MCU movie and the IMDb rating of the movie (Roughan et al. 2020)

Potpourri: Statistics #62

Applied Bayesian Statistics Using Stan and R
Understanding Maximum Likelihood: An Interactive Visualization
Creating MS Word reports using the officer package
Shiny: Add/Removing Modules Dynamically
Pollsters got it wrong in the 2016 election. Now they want another shot.
Webscraping with R – from messy & unstructured to blisfully tidy
Six Things I Always Google When Using ggplot2
RStudio Projects and Working Directories: A Beginner’s Guide
RMarkdown Driven Development: the Technical Appendix
conveRt to R: the short course
Tools and guides to put R models into production
Ways to close backdoors in DAGs
OpenIntro Statistics
Use of the .data and .env Pronouns to Disambiguate Your Tidyverse Code