Category: blog

There is not a single reason that – on its own – can explain why opinion polls differ from election results. Here is an overview of ten reasons opinion polls (sometimes) differ from election results: Margin of error. When we talk about the margin of error in an opinion poll, we accept that even state-of-the-art […]

In a new study, published in Scientific Reports, the authors find a correlation between rates of dogs biting humans and temperature as well as UV irradiation levels. That is, as the title suggests (“The risk of being bitten by a dog is higher on hot, sunny, and smoggy days“), dogs are more likely to bite […]

The more likely it is that a weighted average of opinion polls is wrong, the more we need it. If several opinion polls show the exact same numbers, a weighted average will – all else equal – be more correct than if the opinion polls differ a lot, but such an average is not really […]

In a previous post, I outlined specific issues and concerns with a recent study finding that wind speed could “predict” the Brexit remain vote. Since then, a few other people have written about the study. First, Nick Brown has noticed a few basic factual errors in the descriptions of the referendum in a blog post: […]

Skal meningsmålinger fra alle analyseinstitutter inkluderes i et kvalitetsvægtet gennemsnit? I mit forrige indlæg om FiveThirtyEights nye vægtede gennemsnit pointerede jeg, at G. Elliott Morris, der nu står bag det vægtede snit, ikke delte samme tilgang til vægtede snit som Nate Silver, der i mange år har været synonym med FiveThirtyEight. Et af de konkrete […]