Author: Erik Gahner Larsen

I 1963 publicerede psykologen Stanley Milgram artiklen Behavioral Study of Obedience, hvor det blev undersøgt, i hvilket omfang mennesker følger autoriteter (Milgram 1963). Forsøgspersonerne i eksperimentet bliver informeret om, at de i et læringseksperiment skulle give en anden person stød, hvis vedkommende huskede forkert. Den afhængige variabel i studiet er angiveligt graden af stød forsøgspersonen […]

Der er sket meget i meningsmålingerne i løbet af de seneste par måneder. I januar viste min prognose, at Venstre stod til at få omkring 17 procent af stemmerne. Siden da har partiet mistet endnu flere vælgere i meningsmålingerne. I min seneste prognose står partiet til at få omkring 10 procent af stemmerne. Til sammenligning […]

In 2016, opinion polls – and in particular poll-based prediction models – suffered a major hit with the inability to predict the election of Donald J. Trump as the president of the United States. If you want a quick reminder, take a look at this forecast from the 2016 Presidential Election: The 2020 Presidential Election […]

858. Monty Hall Simulations 859. Making the Monty Hall problem weirder but obvious 860. The Intuitive Monty Hall Problem 861. The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: Discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser 862. The Collider Principle in Causal Reasoning: Why the Monty Hall Dilemma Is So Hard 863. Rationality, the Bayesian […]

This is a brief follow-up post to my previous post with advice on how you can improve your figures. Can it be worse than showing variable names instead of actual labels on your figures? Yes. You can have no labels at all. Take a look at this article. It’s great and includes references to a […]